Repercussions from the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict

Well, nether the Hezbollah or Israel can claim victory. However, after the conflict, Hezbollah will emerge as one of the most powerful forces in the history of the Arab world.

Both Israel and Southern Lebanon (primarily Hezbollah control) were bombed and devastated and the civilian population suffered perhaps what one can call “irreversible” damage. Unexploded rocket shells in the region have kept nations away from helping Lebanon where the damage is of a higher magnitude.

Hezbollah claims that Israel started the war by abducting two civilians – an action that forced Hezbollah to kidnap two Israeli soldiers. Israel denies that it has any role to play with the kidnapping of the civilians. Though, we will never know who really initiated the war, the consequences of the war, like any other, was nothing but mutual devastation.

It is estimated that $ 7 billion is required to rebuild Lebanon. Less than one tenth of the amount is offered by US. France has refused to send peace keeping until a clear mandate is established.

Israel would clearly want Hezbollah to be de-militarized and would prefer the Lebanese army to step in. Anybody who has followed the issue for a while knows and understands that the Lebanese army is one of the most corrupt armies in the world with close ties with the Israeli troops. The army has been accused of carrying on massacres under Israeli supervision.

Hezbollah has originally been established as a powerful political faction in Lebanon that controls the Shia block of the parliament. The UN resolution 1559 was passed demanding that Lebanon disarm militias like Hezbollah and assume complete control of all of its territory. This is rejected by Lebanon claiming that 1559 does not apply to the Hezbollah because the party also has a dual objective to act as a resistance force.

Some repercussions of the conflict:

• Iran, a clear supporter of the Hezbollah, has used the conflict to its advantage. Iran has been successful in distracting the developing world from the nuclear issue. Hezbollah has been used as a proxy by Iran to show America and the developing world of an emerging Shia presence in the region.

• The conflict has increased the Arab world’s animosity for the EU and US. France’s backing out from the lead role in peace keeping force will be used to further garner the “feeling of hate”. Abhorrence will be directed towards Israel as the country is regarded as a proxy for the US.

• The conflict is expected to unify the “Suni” Hamas and the Shia “Hezbollah” who have not exactly been friends over the years.

• Hezbollah’s post-war efforts will make it the organization invincible in terms of military infrastructure (more help from Iran) and with the popularity poll.